I've seen both The Hurt Locker and Avatar twice, so I feel qualified to make this distinction. So, for that matter, are Inglourious Basterds (I always have trouble with the title, because I can spell) and A Simple Man, although both have won Oscars before, and I haven't seen Precious yet, but I assume it's as good as I've heard (& thus also better than Avatar too).
It's not that I dislike James Cameron's movie, even if it was a bit long. I enjoyed it and its technological innovations. Plus, I'm someone who has Terminator 2 on DVD (after I had it on VHS), so I'm quite receptive to anything James Cameron. The most recent blockbuster was entertaining, but there's no way it's better than a handful of the others.
This year's obscenely bloated ten nominees for Best Picture are all good, I assume, but there are ten. This year has twice the amount of usual prospective winners because, I think, the Academy is trying, nostalgically, to resume the long list of nominees of early years. I'm pretty sure this will be a one-year trial. Anyways, here are my picks that almost certainly won't be very accurate. I'm sticking to a rigid "Here's Who Will Win" versus "Here's Who I Think Should Win" because nobody cares.
Best Picture: Avatar.
Best Director: Kathryn Bigelow (she and ex-husband Cameron might swap awards for Picture and Director, but I'm sticking with this, for now).
Best Actor: Jeff Bridges (he's due, which I understand is a foolish way to pick winners, but whatever--this isn't the Emmys).
Best Actress: Sandra Bullock (Meryl Streep is nominated every year, it seems, and Helen Mirren--although I love her--has also been nominated before and won in the past).
Best Supporting Actor: Christoph Waltz (almost a lock--damn he was great in Inglourious Basterds).
Best Supporting Actress: Mo'Nique (I'm told this is almost as inevitable. Plus I really want to hear her thank God first and, I hope, point to the sky like P. Diddy).
Screenplay (Adapted): Precious (again, I'm told it's good).
Screenplay (Original): Quentin Tarantino (he already won this for Pulp Fiction when Forrest Gump took home that year's Best Picture honor, maddeningly).
The others, like the ones for Cinematography and Editing, will probably go to Avatar. It deserves something more, and will win other technical shit against the others. I hope I'm wrong.
R
--6/8. Not bad...
